|
EMPLOYMENT GROWTH
| MOST RECENT
STATISTIC: |
(5,452,000) |
| GRADE: |
F |
| PERIOD COVERED: |
Oct. 2009 |
| Date Released: |
11/06/09 |
| Next Release: |
12/04/09 |
|
|
| Total
Non-Farm Emp. |
132,040,000 |
| % Change 1
Year |
-3.97% |
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Analysis for the Housing Market
By: Jonas Adams
Non-seasonally adjusted total non-farm employment in October was 5,452,000 jobs lower than in October 2008, a slight decrease from last month's year-over-year revised loss of 5,720,000 and over 4-times the number of jobs lost during the twelve month period ending in October 2008. Currently, non-seasonally adjusted total non-farm employment shows a figure of 132,040,000, a decline of 3.97% from October 2008. Based on current trends, we expect year-over-year non-seasonally adjusted employment growth totals to continue to be negative through the fourth quarter of this year and into the first quarter of 2010.
The current non-seasonally adjusted total non-farm employment figure of 132,040,000 is on par with the level seen in at the end of 2004. All of the job gains seen over the last five years have been wiped out.
According to seasonally adjusted data published today,the economy lost 190,000 jobs in October, a significant improvement from the average losses seen through the first nine months of this year, which averaged 448,000 for the first nine months of 2009. On average in 2008, there was contraction of 260,000 jobs per month, in the last quarter this figure accelerated to 550,000 per month. In the first quarter of 2009, the economy lost on average 691,000 jobs per month, falling to 428,000 jobs lost on average per month in the second quarter, in the third quarter this average was just 226,000 jobs lost per month. Based on the current trend, the amount of jobs lost in the fourth quarter is expected to fall below the level seen during the first nine months of the year, but remain in negative territory.
Definitions and Importance for the Housing Market
By:
Jonas Adams
Employment data covers civilian non-farm wage and salary workers. Self-employed persons, domestic servants, unpaid family workers, and members of the armed forces are excluded. These account for an additional 20% of the labor force. Employment estimates are based on establishment surveys for middle of reporting month from U.S. Department of Labor and state and local employment services. Full-time and part-time employment are derived from household data, adjusted to establishment data. Unemployment estimates are based on MSA of residence rather than MSA where last employed. The criterion emphasized in this section is "employment growth" - the increase in number of local jobs in the twelve month periods prior to the survey. Quarterly comparisons are not relevant because employment changes seasonally (Christmas season hiring, etc.).
This provides a measure of whether the local economy is expanding or contracting. Because of frequent revisions, employment growth in the current and the prior period may not be strictly comparable. Local employment data are revised one month after the preliminary estimates, and are adjusted to revised benchmarks approximately one year later and two years later. We measure re-benchmarked data wherever possible. U.S. employment figures include an adjustment for underreporting of employment in new firms. Most local figures do not. Hence, local employment growth tends to be understated, especially in periods of recovery and in areas enjoying strong construction growth. In some areas, construction employment includes mining employment.
More information can be obtained from the Bureau of Labor Statistics at:
http://www.bls.gov/eag/eag.us.htm
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