|
EMPLOYMENT GROWTH
| MOST RECENT
STATISTIC: |
(17,000) |
| GRADE: |
C+ |
| PERIOD COVERED: |
July 2010 |
| Date Released: |
8/06/10 |
| Next Release: |
9/03/10 |
|
|
| Total
Non-Farm Emp. |
129,954,000 |
| % Change 1
Year |
-0.01% |
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Analysis for the Housing Market
By: Jonas Adams
Non-seasonally adjusted total non-farm employment in July was 17,000 jobs lower than in July 2009, a heavy improvement from last month's year-over-year revised loss of 180,000 and over seven million fewer jobs than the economy lost during the twelve month period ending in July 2009. Currently, non-seasonally adjusted total non-farm employment shows a figure of 129,954,000, a decline of 0.01% from July 2009. Based on current trends, we expect year-over-year non-seasonally adjusted employment growth totals to turn positive next month.
The current non-seasonally adjusted total non-farm employment figure of 129,954,000 is on par with the level seen in the middle of 2004. Which means all of the job gains seen over approximately the six years have been wiped out.
According to seasonally adjusted data published today,the economy lost 131,000 jobs in July, a figure which includes the loss 148,000 temporary Census jobs. In July the private sector gained 71,000 jobs from the level seen in June. The construction sector lost 11,000 jobs, but service providing jobs increaed by 38,000 from last month. We expect to see an uptick in seasonally adjusted job figures next month.
Definitions and Importance for the Housing Market
By:
Jonas Adams
Employment data covers civilian non-farm wage and salary workers. Self-employed persons, domestic servants, unpaid family workers, and members of the armed forces are excluded. These account for an additional 20% of the labor force. Employment estimates are based on establishment surveys for middle of reporting month from U.S. Department of Labor and state and local employment services. Full-time and part-time employment are derived from household data, adjusted to establishment data. Unemployment estimates are based on MSA of residence rather than MSA where last employed. The criterion emphasized in this section is "employment growth" - the increase in number of local jobs in the twelve month periods prior to the survey. Quarterly comparisons are not relevant because employment changes seasonally (Christmas season hiring, etc.).
This provides a measure of whether the local economy is expanding or contracting. Because of frequent revisions, employment growth in the current and the prior period may not be strictly comparable. Local employment data are revised one month after the preliminary estimates, and are adjusted to revised benchmarks approximately one year later and two years later. We measure re-benchmarked data wherever possible. U.S. employment figures include an adjustment for underreporting of employment in new firms. Most local figures do not. Hence, local employment growth tends to be understated, especially in periods of recovery and in areas enjoying strong construction growth. In some areas, construction employment includes mining employment.
More information can be obtained from the Bureau of Labor Statistics at:
http://www.bls.gov/eag/eag.us.htm
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