|
New Home
Sales
(Seasonally adjusted annual rate)
|
|
|
|
 |
| MOST RECENT STATISTIC: |
342,000 |
|
|
| GRADE: |
D |
| PERIOD COVERED: |
Dec. 2009 |
| Date Released: |
01/27/10 |
|
|
|
| Next Released: |
02/24/10 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
12/09 |
11/09 |
10/09 |
12/08 |
12/07 |
|
| United States |
|
|
|
|
|
| Sales (000) |
342 |
370 |
408 |
374 |
619 |
| % Change |
- |
(7.6%) |
(16.2%) |
(8.6%) |
(44.7%) |
| South Region |
|
|
|
|
|
| Sales (000) |
178 |
192 |
224 |
193 |
354 |
| % Change |
- |
(7.3%) |
(20.5%) |
(7.8%) |
(49.7%) |
| West Region |
|
|
|
|
|
| Sales (000) |
81 |
77 |
95 |
92 |
135 |
| % Change |
- |
5.2% |
(14.7%) |
(12.0%) |
(40.0%) |
| Midwest Region |
|
|
|
|
|
| Sales (000) |
43 |
73 |
56 |
59 |
76 |
| % Change |
- |
(41.1%) |
(23.2%) |
(27.1%) |
(43.4%) |
| Northeast Region |
|
|
|
|
|
| Sales (000) |
40 |
28 |
33 |
30 |
54 |
| % Change |
- |
42.9% |
21.2% |
33.3% |
(25.9%) |
|
| Source:
U.S.
Census Bureau |
(Percentage Change from
Previous Year - Not Seasonally Adjusted)
| |
Current
Month |
Year-to-Date |
|
|
| United States |
(11.5%) |
(23.1%) |
|
| South Region |
(14.3%) |
(6.1%) |
|
| West Region |
(16.7%) |
(23.9%) |
|
| Midwest
Region |
(25.0%) |
(22.0%) |
|
| Northeast Region |
50.0% |
(22.8%) |
|
|
|
Analysis for the Housing Market
By:Ken Lee
December new home sales plunged for the second straight month due to the anticipated expiration of the original homebuyer tax credit in November and inclement weather in December. Seasonally adjusted new home sales dropped 7.6% from the previous month to an annual rate of 342,000 units. December's drop in sales activity follows a 9.3% plunge in new home sales in November. However, new home sales for the previous three months were revised higher by 21,000 units. The seasonally-adjusted annual rate of new home sales in December is back down to its lowest levels since March. On a year-over-year basis, new home sales are down 8.6% from the 374,000 units in December 2008 and are 44.7% lower than the December 2007 figure of 619,000. While declines in the past two months may be attributed to the run-up in sales activity ahead of the expiration of the original homebuyer tax credit in November, it is a concern that the extension/expansion of the homebuyer tax credit and low mortgage rates have not been able to keep demand elevated especially because activity in resales have remained high. A large drop in new home sales activity in the Midwest region accounted for much of the weakness in December.
On a regional basis, December's seasonally-adjusted new home sales showed the Northeast being the most stable new homes market while the Midwest was the weakest. The Northeast saw sales activity jump 42.9% from the previous month and 33.3% from December of last year. New home sales in the Midwest region experienced the steepest annual declines, dropping 27.1% from December of last year while falling 41.1% decline from last month. The South saw new home sales fall 7.3% from last month and 7.8% from the same year-ago period. The West region experienced a 5.2% increase from last month but sales are still down 12.0% from last December.
*It should also be noted that new home sales data is subjected to large sampling and other statistical errors.
**New homes data in the April release included revisions for seasonally-adjusted new home sales dating back since January 2007.
Definitions and Importance for the Housing Market
By:Ken Lee
The U.S. Census Bureau provides data on new home sales based on a stratified random sample of gathering building activity information from 820 building permit-issuing areas and 70 land areas not covered by permits. A sale is defined as a deposit taken or sales agreement signed and can occur before the issuance of a permit. The Census conducts the Housing Sales Survey by telephone and/or personal interview of about 10,000 builders/owners of approximately 15,000 selected building projects. The resulting average sample size is about 7,500 cases, of which 1,250 are new cases and the remainder are cases carried over from the previous month.
New Homes Sales includes some units whose permits were multifamily. The sample excludes owner-built houses, contractor built houses, units built to be rented, and manufactured housing. Multifamily units are included if the units are side-by-side, have separately metered utilities, include a firewall, and were sold to a buyer.
Since the 1960s the Census Bureau has boosted new home sales data by 3.3% to take into account construction in areas where building permits are required without a building permit being issued. This type of construction would not normally be reported in the Census survey. The housing industry and trade groups believe that such unauthorized construction has virtually ceased, so the 3.3% boost was eliminated. This was not phased out over time, it was dropped completely in the revised estimates as of January 1999.
Historic data prices back to January 2004 were revised by the U.S. Census Bureau.
For more information on new home sales, go to:
http://www.nahb.com/
http://www.census.gov/const/www/newressalesindex.html
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