|
New Home
Sales
(Seasonally adjusted annual rate)
|
|
|
|
 |
| MOST RECENT STATISTIC: |
402,000 |
|
|
| GRADE: |
D- |
| PERIOD COVERED: |
Sept. 2009 |
| Date Released: |
10/28/09 |
|
|
|
| Next Released: |
11/25/09 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
09/09 |
08/09 |
07/09 |
09/08 |
09/07 |
|
| United States |
|
|
|
|
|
| Sales (000) |
402 |
417 |
413 |
436 |
686 |
| % Change |
- |
(3.6%) |
(2.7%) |
(7.8%) |
(41.4%) |
| South Region |
|
|
|
|
|
| Sales (000) |
188 |
209 |
215 |
246 |
350 |
| % Change |
- |
(10.0%) |
(12.6%) |
(23.6%) |
(46.3%) |
| West Region |
|
|
|
|
|
| Sales (000) |
101 |
113 |
101 |
102 |
171 |
| % Change |
- |
(10.6%) |
0.0% |
(1.0%) |
(40.9%) |
| Midwest Region |
|
|
|
|
|
| Sales (000) |
71 |
53 |
56 |
63 |
102 |
| % Change |
- |
34.0% |
26.8% |
12.7% |
(30.4%) |
| Northeast Region |
|
|
|
|
|
| Sales (000) |
42 |
42 |
41 |
25 |
63 |
| % Change |
- |
0.0% |
2.4% |
68.0% |
(33.3%) |
|
| Source:
U.S.
Census Bureau |
(Percentage Change from
Previous Year - Not Seasonally Adjusted)
| |
Current
Month |
Year-to-Date |
|
|
| United States |
(11.4%) |
(27.0%) |
|
| South Region |
0.0% |
(4.0%) |
|
| West Region |
25.0% |
(34.5%) |
|
| Midwest
Region |
(20.0%) |
(23.0%) |
|
| Northeast Region |
50.0% |
(22.1%) |
|
|
|
Analysis for the Housing Market
By:Ken Lee
New home sales in September posted their first monthly decline since March. After five consecutive monthly increases, seasonally adjusted new home sales declined 3.6% from the previous month to an annual rate of 402,000 units. New home sales for the previous three months were revised lower by 26,000 units. On a year-over-year basis, new home sales are still down 7.8% from the 436,000 units in September 2008 and 41.4% less than the September 2007 figure of 686,000. The annual pace of new home sales are coming off their highest levels since September 2008 last month. The drop in new home sales activity last month is likely a result of the upcoming expiration of the homebuyer tax credit. Unless new homebuyers are purchasing finished standing inventory homes, they would not be able to reach settlement before the tax credit expires at the end of November.
On a regional basis, September's seasonally-adjusted new home sales showed monthly increases in only one out of the four regions across the country while two out of the four regions posted an increase from the same time last year. The Midwest was the only region in the country to post an increase in new home sales from the previous month. New home sales in the Midwest jumped 34.0% from August and are up 12.7% from September of last year. The Northeast was the only other region to post an annual increase in new home sales, surging 68.0% from September of last year while sales activity remained unchanged from the previous month. New home sales in the South dropped 10.0% from the previous month and are down 23.6% from last September. The West reported a 10.6% drop in sales from last month and saw sales decline a slight 1.0% from September of last year.
*It should also be noted that new home sales data is subjected to large sampling and other statistical errors.
**New homes data in the April release included revisions for seasonally-adjusted new home sales dating back since January 2007.
Definitions and Importance for the Housing Market
By:Ken Lee
The U.S. Census Bureau provides data on new home sales based on a stratified random sample of gathering building activity information from 820 building permit-issuing areas and 70 land areas not covered by permits. A sale is defined as a deposit taken or sales agreement signed and can occur before the issuance of a permit. The Census conducts the Housing Sales Survey by telephone and/or personal interview of about 10,000 builders/owners of approximately 15,000 selected building projects. The resulting average sample size is about 7,500 cases, of which 1,250 are new cases and the remainder are cases carried over from the previous month.
New Homes Sales includes some units whose permits were multifamily. The sample excludes owner-built houses, contractor built houses, units built to be rented, and manufactured housing. Multifamily units are included if the units are side-by-side, have separately metered utilities, include a firewall, and were sold to a buyer.
Since the 1960s the Census Bureau has boosted new home sales data by 3.3% to take into account construction in areas where building permits are required without a building permit being issued. This type of construction would not normally be reported in the Census survey. The housing industry and trade groups believe that such unauthorized construction has virtually ceased, so the 3.3% boost was eliminated. This was not phased out over time, it was dropped completely in the revised estimates as of January 1999.
Historic data prices back to January 2004 were revised by the U.S. Census Bureau.
For more information on new home sales, go to:
http://www.nahb.com/
http://www.census.gov/const/www/newressalesindex.html
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