|
Unemployment
| |
Rate |
|
|
 |
| MOST RECENT STATISTIC: |
4.5% |
|
|
| GRADE: |
A |
|
|
| PERIOD COVERED: |
Dec. 2006 |
|
|
| Date Released: |
01/05/07 |
|
|
| Next Release: |
02/02/07 |
|
|
|
|
| |
Dec-06 |
Nov-06 |
Oct-06 |
Dec-05 |
Dec-04 |
|
| Unemployment Rate |
4.5% |
4.5% |
4.4% |
4.9% |
5.4% |
| % Change |
- |
0.0% |
0.1% |
(0.4%) |
(0.9%) |
|
| Source:
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics |
Analysis for the Housing Market
By:Jonas Adams
The nation's unemployment rate held steady at 4.5% in December, the same rate seen in November. In terms of annual comparison, the rate is down 40 basis points from 4.9% seen in December of 2005, and down from 5.4% in December 2004. The unemployment rate has consistently been falling since peaking in June 2003 at 6.4%. We expect the national unemployment rate to stay within the 4.5 - 5.1% range for the forseeable future. Currently unemployment is near the lowest level seen in five years.
Current levels are well below the nation's 23-year average of 6.3%. While the nation's unemployment rate is psychologically important and can influence such factors as Consumer Confidence, it is a lagging indicator. Therefore, it is important to monitor employment growth for unemployment trends that may arise over the short term.
Definitions and Importance for the Housing Market
By:Jonas Adams
Employment data covers civilian non-farm wage and salary workers. Self-employed persons, domestic servants, unpaid family workers, and members of the armed forces are excluded. These account for an additional 20% of the labor force. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) bases employment estimates on monthly establishment payroll surveys of nearly 400,000 business establishments nationwide. The benchmark for the sample-based estimate is provided by the BLS’s quarterly unemployment insurance universe count, which is a quarterly count of the number of employees covered by unemployment laws. This count contains over seven million establishments and covers nearly 98 percent of total nonfarm employment. Full-time and part-time employment are derived from household data, adjusted to establishment data. Unemployment estimates are based on MSA of residence rather than MSA where last employed. The criterion emphasized in this section is “employment growth” – the increase in number of local jobs in the twelve-month periods prior to the survey. Quarterly comparisons are not relevant because employment changes seasonally (Christmas season hiring, etc.).
This provides a measure of whether the local economy is expanding or contracting. Because of frequent revisions, employment growth in the current and the prior period may not be strictly comparable. Local employment data are revised one month after the preliminary estimates, and are adjusted to revised benchmarks approximately one year later and two years later. We measure rebenchmarked data wherever possible. U.S. employment figures include an adjustment for underreporting of employment in new firms. Most local figures do not. Hence, local employment growth tends to be understated, especially in periods of recovery and in areas enjoying strong construction growth. In some areas, construction employment includes mining employment.
To determine the unemployment rate, nearly 60,000 households are contacted each month via the Current Population Survey. Workers age sixteen and older are questioned to determine if they are employed, unemployed, or out of the labor force. Sample households are interviewed for four consecutive months and then removed from the sample for eight months. The same individuals are then interviewed again for the same four months in the following year. Estimates indicate there is a 90% chance that the true unemployment rate is within 0.2% of the one derived from the survey sample.
More information can be obtained from the Bureau of Labor Statistics at:
http://www.bls.gov/eag/eag.us.htm
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