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Consumer
Confidence
|
1ST
Release |
|
|
 |
| MOST
RECENT STATISTIC: |
55.9 |
|
|
| PERIOD
COVERED: |
January 2010 |
|
|
| Date
Released: |
01/26/10 |
|
|
| Next
Release: |
02/23/10 |
|
|
| Grade: |
F |
|
|
| Index: |
55.9 |
|
|
| Present
Situation: |
25.0 |
|
|
| Expectations: |
76.5 |
|
|
|
Analysis for the Housing Market
By:Ken Lee
The consumer confidence index increased to a reading of 55.9 in January from a revised December figure of 53.6. This was the third consecutive month that the consumer confidence index has increased and the highest it has been since September 2008. The consumer confidence index is also up from the same year-ago period when it recorded a reading of 37.4.
The present situation index increased from the previous month to a reading of 25.0 from 20.2 last month. The present situation index rebounded from December levels when it reached its lowest levels since February 1983. The expectations index increased to 76.5 from 75.9 in the previous month. This is the third straight month that the expectations index has increased and the highest it has been since October 2007. Seven out of the nine regions in January posted monthly increases in the consumer confidence index. The West North Central region posted the largest monthly gain in consumer confidence, jumping 36.43% from last month. The only two regions to post monthly declines were the West South Central and New England regions, declining 0.28% and 2.19% respectively from last month.
Sentiment regarding present business conditions were mixed but slightly more positive than the previous month while sentiment regarding the current employment situation improved from last month. Consumers' expectations of business conditions in the next six months were more pessimistic while their outlook regarding employment and income were relatively neutral.
The number of people surveyed that plan to buy a home within the next 6 months increased slightly to 1.8% from 1.7% while the portion that plans to buy a new home increased to 0.6% from 0.4% in the previous month.
Definitions and Importance for the Housing Market By:
By:Ken Lee
The Consumer Confidence Survey is a monthly measure of the public's confidence in the health of the U.S. economy, and is an important measure for the health of the housing markets. Because the index measures consumers' willingness to spend money (including buying a home), as well as their confidence in their future employment and income levels, it can be used to determine households' willingness to make a large investment in a home (down payment) and to assume the monthly payments of a mortgage.
The Consumer Confidence Index is based on a mail survey of 5,000 U.S. households, with a typical 70% response rate. The survey is taken during the first few weeks of every month, and different households are surveyed each month. There is an index for the United States overall, as well as an index for each of the nine major regions defined by the Census Bureau. There are also two subindices: Present Situation and Expectations. The Consumer Confidence Index is bench marked to 1985=100, and we consider an index above 100 to be a positive outlook for housing market conditions. Survey results are published monthly and are revised the following month once the surveys are analyzed more thoroughly. The survey is conducted for The Conference Board by NFO Research Inc., an NFO Worldwide Company (NYSE:NFO), based in Greenwich, Connecticut.
For more information on the Consumer Confidence Index, go to:
http://www.crc-conquest.org/
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